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Would like to invite these collectors to the forum

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George
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« on: June 10, 2011, 02:35:56 am »

Of course I do not read Chinese, but would like to see if one of you would consider inviting this person here to the forum..

Maybe the other collectors shown within her blog sidebar could be invited as well ?

I got an email from her asking if I speak Chinese.

Replied in Chinese that I do not.  Maybe she has seen the forum ??

Here is a link to her blog..
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Peter Bentley 彭达理
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« Reply #1 on: June 10, 2011, 11:29:04 am »

Hi  George

WOW  !  Hit  gold   dirt  ! 

YES  ... invite   her  to  the   Forum  ( in  english)   and    everyone  in her  side   bar 

Also  give  her  my  email address    so I can follow -up   and  communicate   directly   with  her    in Chinese  ( and  I   will   try myself   directly   via  other   channels  , absed  on  her  website  info )

At this   stage  in  the  Forum  I think  we are  in  the  phase  of  LOVE  YOU  ALL  :  COME  JOIN US 

She  was  obviously   there  in BJ  at the   WXS  Museum  opening  ceremony  ( same  as  me  )    but  I  did  not  recognize  her  and  she  did  not    recognize  me    (  and  she   had  a  much  better   vantage  point   for the  pics,  so  obviously  she  was   much  higher  up  in the      VIP   standing )    Me  on that  day   ?  I   was   relegated  to  the    "riff-raff "   =    current   Hengshui   top  artists /  general   spectators group.    But   THAT'S  WHERE  I  WOULD   HAVE  CHOSEN TO BE    even if  the   big- wigs   invited  me  to  the   front-line   with   the  ICSBS   top  bananas  .

My   affection   was  100%   with  the   Hengshui    top  artists   who  had  been     brought   by  coach  that  morning  , and  I was  the  only  (  I  mean     THE  ONLY, not  even    Singapore  collectors)   who  waved  the  coach  off that  afternoon back to  Hengshui     

Hope  that  proves  I    follow  my  heart  on the  "VM"   School  and  I   don't  give a  fig  re the   ICSBS  until they  start  to  recognize  the   M  /  VM     School 
   
Cheers

Peter

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« Reply #2 on: June 10, 2011, 04:55:13 pm »

Hi  again George

Please   would  you   fwd  the email  to me  and  Richard

I think  we  must  follow  this  up    very  seriosuly

Having  explored  the   side  bars   to  the  blog   I think  I  now  have been  introduced  to this  Lady   at  some  or  other   banquet.  And   every  contact  to the   home-grown  Chinese  collectors'     community  is  pure  gold, because  I sense  that it  will  become  THE  driving  force  in the  future    for  IPBs

Cheers   Peter
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« Reply #3 on: June 10, 2011, 08:21:55 pm »

Interesting indeed.  Had a conversation with a dealer yesterday and he confirmed that (in general), the mainland Chinese collectors today are following 'dead' IPB artists, not so much the ones alive today.  In other words, it is still mostly investment type collecting style for them, but now it is changing fast.  He told me that in the past 2-3 years the shift of clients went from 70/30pct (foreign/local) to 40/60pct and expects a complete flip to 25/75pct or worse.  Quite a transformation.  Once this happens, the supply side of the market could dry up:

1) if the new artists (VM) and especially their students are not plentiful enough or cant make a good enough living
2) the foreign collecting community does not have the right 'direct' connections to the artists
3) keep in mind that the annual output of 'good' bottes is probably no higher than 50 per artist (lets say one good bottle a week).  If you multiply that by 200 very good painters, that is 10,000 bottles per year.  Peter also did similart math somewhere... If you think about it, that is NOT a lot of bottles ONCE the mainland chinese get into the game.

This is bad news for us 'love' collectors unless we make this forum work.   BUT interestingy enough it is very good news for the ICSBS type collectors who collect for rarity, name and value and appreciation.   AND also, there is a stronlg likelihood that the subjects/topics of the bottles will shift over again to items of interest to the Chinese collectors (calligraphy, mythical, historical, insects, birds).
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« Reply #4 on: June 10, 2011, 08:33:53 pm »


This is bad news for us 'love' collectors unless we make this forum work.   

May well be... That is why I have been trying ot find interesting things to post about other types of bottle.. In hopes that the forum might attract all kinds of collectors.

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« Reply #5 on: June 10, 2011, 08:43:04 pm »

Hey  Pat  !

Great   input  ! Please  let me  digest 

But  it's  truly   GREAT   to get some  independent  thinking  about  the  " math"  of  VM  IPBs

Cheers   Peter
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« Reply #6 on: June 11, 2011, 03:55:27 am »

Hi  All,  especially   Pat

This  is  really  GREAT   input  to   the   Forum.  

It    summarizes   general   pice  info  and  TRENDS  but  it  does  not  give away  individual  price/ artist  info   which  I  think  should  be  kept   private    ( Well:  that's  what  I  personally   think ,  as  long  as  the  artist  is "playing  by the  rules" )

Some  new   update  info,  fresh   back   from  Shanghai  :     Hengshui  Artist , Mr  "X "     is    asking  exactly  the same  prices     as  he  was  asking   1  year   ago  :    Last  week  I  bought   one  of  his    works   via  my  SH  specialist   shop  at  exactly  the  same  price  as  I  paid   for   two  of  his  works  by  email  /  direct    last  week    :   RMB3,500  =  US$540  / bottle  .  So  I guess  he  was   selling  to the   shop  at  RMB 2,000 - 2,500  max .

Artist  X  is  a  fast -upcoming  guy,  painting  incredible    stuff   that  I  buy  for   pure  beauty    and  creativity

I  refuse  to  "hype"  him by   giving out  his  name

I  think  that   if  there  is   A  REAL   "hype"   it's  coming   from   external forces : mainly   Chinese   Newby    collectors  and  also  Taiwan  "get  in  on  the  act"     collectors  :  all  of   whom  go  for   PREMIUM  NAMES

Where  does   that  leave  us     as   normal  collectors ?

Answer  :  Not  much  room ..........    Sad

OK   -  let me   come  clean  :  I net   US$120 K per   year   after   tax    and  the   ABSOLUTE   MAX   I  can afford  to  invest   in  buying new bottles  is   therefore   10%  =   US$12,000/ Year   @  6.5   =  RMB 78,000  /  year    =   RMB   6,500/ month  

That's   a limiting  factor   for  me   and  I bet that  there  are     very   few   collectors  out  there   (  except  the  ICSBS  top  bananas)   who  can afford  to   spend    more than   US$12 K / Year    =  US$  1 K  / month    on  their  "habit"

Sorry   to    write  in  such  mercenary  terms,  but  these  are   a  fact of  life for   "normal"    salaried   collectors  like  me

Cheers    Peter


  

    

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« Reply #7 on: June 11, 2011, 05:51:46 am »

Yup, once the mainstream Chinese collector gets on board for 'investment', we can only dream of a few of these items we like per year.  Just look at the Chinese real estate market as an example.  People have been saying it would 'bubble' for years, but never has, .. Just too many affluent new willing entrants, and frankly not enough supply side.  Not dissimilar to my assertions below.  Add to that the ability to display/store snuff bottles in small spaces vs. paintings, scrolls, carvings, etc... and there we go.  Only the future will tell, but I am not too far off, I am convinced of that.
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« Reply #8 on: June 11, 2011, 06:13:47 am »

Hey   Pat,,

My  thinking exactly    !

High  property   pices  =  small    homes  ( = small   apartments,  especially  in  HK  !)

WHICH   =    very   small  wall  space   to  post   paintings  =   SMALL    cabinets   to  display  miniature   paintings  in bottles

WHICH  =   Ever  - increasing   prices   ( Long  -term )    for   IPBs

My  dear   and  beautiful   wife,  when  we bought  our  new  apartment   at the   very   bottom  of  the   financial    post- 2009  market, had  the  foresight  to   give me   ample    display cabinets     for  my bottles 

Bles  her  for  that  decision

Cheers

Peter

 


* s Home Office ( and Collection).jpg (45.49 KB, 448x336 - viewed 17 times.)
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« Reply #9 on: June 11, 2011, 06:34:30 am »

One more piece of my own math and deduction to further illustrate the 'finite' nature of good painter output.  The active/productive life of a painter is probably about 15-20 years, even give them 20 years, that is about 1000 bottles (50 per year from my prior posting).  Of which probably only 20-25 pct (200-250 max) are produced in the painters 'prime', if you assume a 5 year prime period, which I think is reasonable.  Example.  I heard Nie Lei (Rui Zhi/Yi Ding) is having trouble painting due to a chronic back problem today.  His prime is/was probably not over 5 years.

There is incredible 'investment' and future value here for the people who are willing to ride it out AND take and invest the time to learn/explore.  I think this time has come for Asian collectors.  It is however, a real shame, that this is not generally true for the West (I refer to your personal experiences recently in BJ).
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« Reply #10 on: July 05, 2011, 08:07:54 pm »

Since I do not read or write Chinese, have not tried to contact any of the collecters within the blog in the orginal post.

Anyone want to give it a whirl and try contacting both the blog owner, and each of the followers of the blog inviting them to the forum ?

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