Message #1977

[Pat - 查尚杰]

Trust me .. I have i read all your stuff several times.  In the end, I think your conclusion hits it right on.  I think you are right about the 300 guessed 'numbers' of good to great artists (who knows how many pen names that is, but at least 600, and probably aroiund 1000-1200, if we average 3-4 pen names per artist). If we discount the 'factory' and 'student' grade bottles selling from lets say to $10-$50, there would just not be enough economic livelihood for the artists to make a reasonable living if there were more of them.  If you take an average annual output of say 50 good (that is probably on the high side) bottles per person x 300 artists, that makes 15,000 good bottles per year that find their way into the unknown abyss. Given the rising collector scene in China, that is not improbable as it is after all a truly unique and chinese art, and the wealthy chinese have certainly rediscovered it.

Maybe those of us collecting today outside China can count ourselves among the blessed.  I have the uncomfortable feeling this art will either not survive (worst case) or become a Cninese playground altogether (best case).