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First-hand evidence of 2 - 3 x price inflation in past 2 years

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Peter Bentley 彭达理
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« on: May 30, 2011, 05:53:42 pm »

Hi  All

I'm  in Beijing  for the  opening  of the  Wang Xisan  BJ  Museum. I therefore  took the  opportunity to  visit the   specialist   bottle  shop  in the  Landmark  Hotel  shopping  arcade  next  to my  BJ office  where  I bought  some of  my  earliest  and  best  Song  Yiming bottles  in the  mid  2000's  from their  special " exclusive:for  your  eyes  only"  shelf.

Very  interestingly  :

a) the   shop  has  now  diversified  into  other   Chinese   arts  and   crafts, so  whereas the  bottle  section was  before  90%   of the  shop ,  now   it's now  only   30%

b)  the  staff   running the  shop  is  now the  boss's   wife,  whereas  before  it  was  one  of  several  employees.

So  I conclude that  business  for  bottles  is  drying  up, and business  is   generally  tough, so    the  boss  cannot   afford  to  employ  other   staff  (yesterday  evening  I met  the  boss himself  in the  shop  for the  first time  ever)

WHY  ?   Because prices  for GOOD  bottles   seem  to  have  escalated  to  beyond the  pocket  of the  average  tourist   who   frequents   up-market  shopping  arcades  like  this.   (  Bear  in mind  :   Landmark  Hotel  is   slap bang /  50  yards across  the   way  next to the  BJ  Great  Wall  Hotel,  so  it's  a prime  up-market tourist  centre)

There  are   a  couple  of  bottles    still  for  sale  at  this  shop  by a  young   Hengshui  artist   whom  Bill and  I  know   very well :  call  him  "HCH" . They were  there  in  the   shop  in  5.2009  when  I  was  on my  way  to  Hengshui   for a long weekend but  I passed  on them because  I already  had  a  very  good  HCH  bottle  in this  particular  style / theme  and  did  not  feel  inclinded  to  buy   any  more, although  I did  at the  time  buy  6  bottles  by other artists ,  which   were  in total   marked  price   RMB26,000, but  which  I  got  as a lot  sale   for  total  RMB10,000  =  60%   discount  on marked  prices.  

So  if  I had  also  bought  one or  both  of these   2  x  HCH  in  5.2009  I  would  have  paid   RMB3,200  x 0.4  =  RMB1,280  each , which   was  roughly   what  I  was  paying  HCH  direct  at that  time  in  Hengshui  ( I  guess  he  sold   to   dealers  at  about   30 -40%  less than he  sold  to  me  direct  )  

These two bottles were marked at RMB3,200 each  in  5.2009. Now in  5.2011 they  are  marked  at RMB7,960

See  attached  pics.

And in the  meantime the  RMB  has  appreciated  about  15%  vs  the  US$  so    RMB7,960  =   about  RMB 9,000   in  money  of the  day   @ 2009.    9,000 /3,200  =  280%  =  3  x

There's a  recent  bottle  in the   shop  by a  medium-quality  artist  marked  at  RMB 8,000   which  I  am  trying to  buy on a   take-it-or-leave-it  basis  .   I really can   afford  to   walk  away  from the  bottle.  It's  a  pretty  piece, but  not   exceptional   compared to the  rest  of  my collection.  My  best offer  of  RMB 3,000  has  been   turned  down   flat  ,  so to get it  I will  probably have  to  pay  RMB 4K  =  50%  discount  from marked  price  =  best   discount  from  marked  price  by any  genuine   artist-signed  bottle in the   shop.  

So, back to the    HCH  :   RMB7,960  x  50%  =   RMB 3,980  ( =  4K)

RMB 4,000  /   (  RMB3,200  x  0.4)  =    300%

QED : about  a  2 - 3 x inflation of  real  prices after FINAL  discount  in RMB  compared to  2009,  and even  more  if   reckoned  in USD

Is  this  good  or  bad ?  

Well for   the  up-coming  artists, assuming they  can move  all   their   works  into the open market, it's  very  good  news  because  they  can  get  at least   2  x  what  they  got before  for their bottles, so they  can   spend more time  on each bottle  and  perfect  their  styles  =  better  bottles , although   at   2 -3  x  higher  prices.  That's  what  every   up-coming artist  must long  for

But  for  collectors,  that  means  that  to buy  works  by  artists  of the  calibre  of   fast  up-coming  HCH one must  now  pay about   USD600 instead  of  USD200  in 2009.

But  on the  other hand ...   there's  a  whole  new  generation of   students  in their  mid-late   20's  painting  bottles  which  technically    are  much better  than  than  their  teachers, and  often  even  better  than   fast-rising stars  like  HCH  and  his already-risen-to- fame   contemporaries in their   30's .  And  these  bottles  can be  bought   direct  in Hengshui  at the  same  prices   that  HCH  was   charging  in  2009  ,  i.e.  about  USD 200.

But  as  to  whether  any of these  new   young  artists   have   the talent  to  create  new  styles amd  themes   instead  of  just  copying other  more  famous  artists ....  well :  that  remains   for time to  tell.  

 But   what seems   fairly certain is that  there's  nothing  much  being  painted  currently  with   any  lasting  value  below the  USD150  = RMB 1,000  baseline   threshold  ...  unless  one  can  spot  the  next  Wang Xisan   in his/her  diapers !

I    begin to think  that  not  only are  we   seeing   art-in-miniature , but    also  we are  witnessing  the  creation  of a  whole  new   art-form-in-miniature

For  those   very  few  of  us  who  are  closely   following  the   development  of this  new   Very  Modern  "VM"  School , the  next  10 -20  years   will  be  VERY  interesting  indeed  !

Cheers   Peter  @  Beijing





* CC HCH 5.2009.jpg (356.72 KB, 970x737 - viewed 21 times.)

* CC HCH 5.2011.JPG (325.01 KB, 936x768 - viewed 20 times.)
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Pat - 查尚杰
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« Reply #1 on: May 30, 2011, 10:35:28 pm »

Yes, indeed.  The judge is out on this one for the future.  I am not really sure what to think about it.  Also confirms what I said about base materials (glass, man made crystal mostly) prices doubling or more, as I was told.  I agree with you that today probably NOTHING worthwhile in VM IPB can be bought for less than 150USD, that is also my experience.  Where 3-4-5 years ago (even 2 years ago, I seem to recall) I had the run of the mill with dealers/runners at 150-300 USD per complex bottle, and $75-150 for medium complexity bottle, those days seem long long gone.   It will be interesting to see Jill's new catalogue coming out. Her prices will be also an indication.  Did she share her thoughts on this?

The other troubling part though is the attitude of the ICSBS folk toward new painters, as your experience went last weekend.  If not more Western or non-Asian collectors get into the game of 'love' for this art form instead of 'for monetary appreciation', these bottles will not only get EVEN MORE expensive but dissappear into a giant black hole never to be seen or shared, for most non-Chinese speakers.  What is Clare Chu's (Lawrence) perspective on this Peter?
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Peter Bentley 彭达理
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« Reply #2 on: May 30, 2011, 11:56:13 pm »

Hi  Pat,

Very   good  input.  Many thanks

 I have  not    yet  seen  Jill's   Spring  2011  catalogue  , but  I am  having dinner   with  Jill   and  Li Hui  tomorrow  so  I  will  ask  her  for the  latest   catalogue -  if  yet   available  (  I  have  her  Fall  2010  catalogue, but   not the  prices , but I will   also  get them  also  tomorrow  ) 

I  think  her   Spring  2010  catalogue   with prices  is  on the  Data Base   stick I sent   you. If  not  i can email  to   you.
 
In  my  opinion,  Jill's  prices  are  a very  good   guideline   to  current real /  fair  prices  because  they  are  based  strictly  on the  artist's  asking  prices .  Jill  takes a  fixed - and , in my opinion, a   very   fair -  commission  on every   succesful  sale  to cover  her  overhead  costs  to publish and  promote the  catalogue,  which  actually  does  cost a  lot  of  time  and  money,   and  unsold  bottles  are  returned  to the  artist.    Based  on  what  I  know,  I reckon  Jill  makes  about  10%  net profit  per  bottle  sold  after  deducting  all   her  costs  ( and  bear in mind  she  and her  hsuband Li Hui   now   go to  all the  ICSBS  conventions, to promote  sales,  which  is  no mean investment  in time and  money  )

I know   Jill and  Li Hui   very  well on a  personal  basis,    and  I can assure  you   they  do  not  live  a " life  of  luxury"    and their  little   home in Beijing   would   fit  into  any  normal western collector's  lounge .  So all of  you  on this  Forum, please  do  not  think  of  Jill and  Li  Hui  as  dealers  on  a  par  with   those  World-wide   dealers  who are  bidding  HK$  Millions to  buy  up  bottles  from the  Bloch   collection.   Far   from  it  !    (  VERY   far  !)

Trust me  !

Re  your  main point, Pat  :  ....

 If not more Western or non-Asian collectors get into the game of 'love' for this art form instead of 'for monetary appreciation', these bottles will not only get EVEN MORE expensive but dissappear into a giant black hole never to be seen or shared, for most non-Chinese speakers. 

.. YES,  these  bottles   will   become  much more  expensive  in the next  10 -20  years, especially as  buying power  becomes   greater  and  living space  becomes  smaller  ( at  least  in Asia).  I can only  display  4  -5  paitings  in my home  but  I can easily  display  500  bottles . 

I think  Mainland  Chinese and  Taiwan  buyers   will also  force  up  prices  very  fast. They   are already  creating   a  big wave  as  I have seen  in HK  at  CAC  ( but also   waves  collapse,  as  I also  saw  last month  at  CAC  - see  earlier  posting) .

Apparently  last   sunday  night, which  I  did  not   attend.  was  to  welcome   30  new  Mainland  members  to the  ICSBS  and  open a   Clubhouse   for   Mainland  ICSBS  members   in BJ  ( presumably  at the     WXS  Museum ) 

On  the  other  hand, I think that  ICSBS   western  collectors  will  be the    very last  to   catch this  general   wave (tsunami?)  , because  they  always   FOLLOW  the   wave 

Most  of them   seem to have  no  confidence  in their  own  judgement  of  what  is  or  is  not   true   art  in M / VM   bottles  unless  someone  else    with   some   authority  values  it , be  it   dealer /  auction price   /  or  any  self-styled  VM  expert  ( =  me ?!  Heaven  forbid!  But  it  appeared  from the last weekend's    big  do  in BJ  that  I  have  suddenly  become the   "VM  guru"  ,  a  title   which I  distain   absolutely , because  I'm  just a  stoopid   rookie  in love  with  IPBs)

There  was  one  collector  at the  Wang  Xisan   BJ  Museum   who impressed  me  more  than  anyone  else :  Yeo Kong Hoo,  from  Singapore.   He  has managed  to  collect  the  works  of  Wang  Xisan  from  every    single year   WXS  painted.
That, in itself, is  a huge   achievement .    But  there  was  something else   about  Yeo  ( as  he    so-called)    which  I liked  above  anything   else :  he  is  100%  "genuine"   as  a  person.   More  than  that  I cannot  say.  It's my    ultimate  compliment   because  the  word "genuine"  encapsulates  all I   aspire to  be,  but  frequently   fail  to  achieve .

Yeo  told  me  that  when  he    first   seriously  started   collecting  the  works  of  WXS  they  were  on   sale  for  as  little  as  USD500  per  piece, and that  was  as  recently as  about   10   years  ago  (  I  forget the   exact  details,  but   certainly  not   20  years  ago  )  . What  foresight  !  His book , with  pics  of  his  collection  of  Wang  Xisan, Liu Shouben  and  Dong  Xue   has  been  reviewed  in the  latest  ICSBS    journal. 

Me....  ?  I  am  still  a   silly , and somewhat   crazy -  rookie  in  total   love  with   VM  IPBs. 

Can't  change  that.    Never  can change

But  I hope  I can  roll a  few  stones  in the   right   direction    for the  artists  on  earth   before  I  join  the   great  ICSBS  in the   sky

Cheers   Peter  @  Beijing
 

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« Reply #3 on: May 31, 2011, 12:02:37 am »

Thanks Peter! You forgot to mention Clare's perspective... if she divulged it.  I can imagine she is in a tough spot given the audience there.
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« Reply #4 on: May 31, 2011, 12:22:03 am »

Hi  Pat

The  first  time  I met  Clare  in  2009    she   and  Michael  came  to my  home   to see my  baby  collection ( at that  time  it  was  barely  50 bottles) . Clare  commented  that  I seemed  very    certain of  my  judgment  about   WHAT    M  /  VM  bottles/ artists  to  buy . I  simply  told  her  that  I  bought  purely  for  love and taste  and  never  for  once  considered   how  famous  -  or  otherwise  -  the   artist  might be.

But  I am sure   Clare   has  some  strong and  very   authoritative opinions, because   she  interacts   with a  very  broad  range  of  collectors  ( 1,000   more than  I can possibly be  related   to)

And  BTW   Clare  Chu    is  not  the  same  as    the  " Clare"    already  registered  on this   forum

Cheers  Peter  @  BJ

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